Housing’s Direction?
19 05 2009Some interesting stats came out today signaling a change in the direction of the new housing market. The National Association of Home Builders is reporting that home builder confidence has risen for the second straight month and is at an 8 month high, while at the same time Department of Commerce released figures showing that housing construction and permits are at an all time low. Are we at the bottom?
We don’t know about you, but it seems like there is nowhere to go but up right?
[Photo: The New Capitol Quarters, SE by Otavio_DC]
Well perception is everything, if the builders have a positive outlook, they will start building more, so the reasoning makes sense.
Just in time for the second wave.
We’re at the bottom of the subprime crash. The last of the subprime ARMs reset in August.
Then the second wave hits. That’s the wave of prime borrowers who used Alt-A and Option-ARM mortgages to keep up with bubble prices. These recasts skyrocket after August and last through 2012. The second wave is just as big as the subprime wave, and it’s going to hit the middle/upper class.
See the gruesome ARM chart here: http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/temporary-affordability-and-the-third-foreclosure-wave/